AG Finanzmathematik

Vortrag "Rating Under Asymmetric Information" von Prof. Dr. Alexander Szimayer

Am Donnerstag, den 29.11.2018 hält Prof. Dr. Alexander Szimayer von der Universität Hamburg einen Vortrag zum Thema "Rating Under Asymmetric Information".

Der Vortrag findet um 14:00 Uhr in Raum E4.09 (Bernhard Riemann) am Fraunhofer ITWM statt.

We study a dynamic signalling game where a firm, by its decision to stay solvent, signals its quality to a rating agency with the rating feeding back into the firm’s cost of capital. Observing the firm’s true cash flow blurred by a persistent measurement error, the error-minimizing rating agency learns dynamically through the firm’s solvency decision. Firms observed with higher measurement error default earlier, inducing directional learning by successively eliminating measurement errors which are too high to be feasible. In a partially separating perfect Bayesian equilibrium in Markov strategies, the firm employs a measurement-error dependent cut-off strategy. We discuss the extensive economic consequences of such a learning mechanism.

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